Saturday, February 05, 2005

Hotelling's theory of minimum differentiation

Those who read political science must have heard about Harold Hotelling. He proposed a model called Hotelling’s Model, or what I prefer to see as the theory of minimum differentiation. I found a good explanation of the theory on a website. The explanation goes like this… Suppose that two owners of refreshment stands, George and Henry, are trying to decide where to locate along a stretch of beach. Imagine there are three points along the beach, with point A at the left end, point C at the right end, and point B in between A and C. There are 100 customers located at even intervals along this beach from point A to C, and that a customer will buy only from the closest vendor. Imagine that initially the vendors locate at points A and C. These locations would minimize the average travelling costs of the buyers and would result in each vendor getting one half of the business. If George moved from point A on the left to point B in the middle, he would keep all customers to his left, and get some of Henry's customers. To compete, Henry would also want to move toward point B in the centre, so that he can keep the customers to his right, while not losing the customers who are at the centre to George. Thus, in order to gain the most customers, both vendors would eventually locate together in the middle. This story of the beach was first told a half century ago by Harold Hotelling, and is called Hotelling's model. Though it can give some insights into businesses decisions concerning location and product characteristics, the model has been more useful in explaining certain political phenomena. Instead of two refreshment stands along a beach trying to attract dollars from customers, consider two political parties along the political spectrum from left-wing it right-wing trying to attract votes from voters. Only the party who attracts the most votes will win, and a party must locate or identify itself as being nearer to more voters than its opponent to attract votes. With these rules, there is a strong tendency for each party to move to the middle - where most voters are located.

In short, in order to gain the most votes, the parties try to locate themselves somewhere in the middle-ground, with the hope that they will garner more votes from the opponent. Since both of them locate to the middle, they eventually minimise the differences between themselves.

I will write more on why I find this theory interesting in the near future.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Never heard of the theory, but I have always been interested in the trend of political parties (in particular on the left) who shift to the center after strong right wing governments in UK and the US in the 1980s.

The Social Democrats in Germany, the Democrats in the US and Labour (New) in UK all shift to the center and won elections in the 1990s.

However, from what I see in the UK, the Tories seem to be pushed to the right to differentiate itself from Labour. Issues like security and a competent economy - all Tory hallmark issues have been stolen by Labour, and even M. Howard seems to admit that. But this - which seems to match your brief description of the Hotelling theory - has pushed it further to the fringes.

In Malaysia, I think that following Dr. M's absurd declaration of Malaysia being an Islamic state, it has restricted PAS to debating on Islam but has affected its effort of reaching out post 1998 (or to look into a longer trend, since 1986). Islam Hadhari too, seems, to a certain extent to appeal to Muslims who felt alienated by Dr. M's callous treatment of Islam.

In the US on the other hand, they have always been traditionally more right wing than Europe and Sept 11 has strengthened the neo-cons to a significant extent. While the Democrats tried to talk about issues of security and try to look tough on terror, the effort by some Liberals for the recognition of gay marriage has certainly meant that it drifts further from average American voter.

My humble opinion,

Nik Nazmi

2/05/2005 09:46:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your blog is getting more boring each time you write about British politics. Come on, write something about local politics (ie Malaysia).

2/06/2005 02:20:00 am  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In one other theory, it is called wasatiah. Istiqamah would also fit since it is in essence means "being in the middle of the road (syari'ah) guided by the knowledge of fiqh and tasawwuf."

2/06/2005 01:39:00 pm  

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